Conservative Party Wins Shock UK Victory

On Friday morning, the last of the returns came in from the 2015 British General Election. Defying expectations across the board, the ruling Conservative Party gained 25 seats to bring their total number of MPs to 331, landing them a 5-seat majority in the House of Commons and returning David Cameron to Downing Street as Prime Minister for a second term. This is the first majority government for the Conservative party since 1992, and the first time they have increased their number of seats while in government since 1983.

Most of the Conservative’s gains came at the expense of the centrist Liberal-Democrats, who were practically annihilated, losing 49 of their previous 57 seats. The Lib-Dem’s most humiliating loss came from losing a staggering number of their electoral deposits—£500 candidate filing fees that are only returned if the candidate manages to win over 5% of the vote. In 2010 they lost none, in 2015, they’ve lost £170,000 worth.

The most shocking development of Thursday night was the left-leaning Scottish National Party’s near-sweep of Scotland, a traditional Labour stronghold. The SNP gained 56 seats, winning all but three constituencies in Scotland to become the third-largest party in the entire UK. A large part of the SNP’s success is likely due to the increased exposure it has had over the past year due to the Scottish Independence Referendum in September 2014. The resulting debate over Scotland’s place within the Union left many Scottish voters, even those who opposed independence seeking more devolved powers from the Westminster Parliament. Additionally, Labour likely suffered due to its supporting the “No” campaign during the referendum and being perceived to be part of the status quo by ineffectively opposing David Cameron and the Tories.

Labour’s defeat at the hands of both the Conservatives and the SNP marks their worst election result since 1987, and 41 years since they have achieved a majority without the more centrist Tony Blair at their helm. Many blame Ed Miliband’s leadership, which took the party to the left, for Labour’s poor performance. It would not be surprising to see Miliband’s successor move Labour to the center-left policies of Tony Blair, who, like Bill Clinton, emphasized centrism to bring the party to a landslide victory. Interestingly, Blair is the only Labour leader in 40 years to deliver a majority.

Despite winning over 2.5 million votes across Britain, right-leaning, anti-immigration United Kingdom Independence Party, led by Nigel Farage only won one seat. Farage who lost his, resigned from party leadership, joining Ed Miliband of Labour and Nick Clegg of the Liberal-Democrats in a series of high-profile defeats for the other three parties. One of this election’s most revealing trends is the huge increase in third party voting. Because Britain, like the United States, has a First-Past-the-Post voting system, the influence of these parties is muted.
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Young People Don’t Trust Their Major Institutions Anymore

Last week, Harvard University’s Institute of Politics released its 26th “Survey of Young Americans’ Attitudes Towards Politics and Public Service.” Conducting biannually since the spring of 2000, the report polls 18- to 29-year-olds on the hot-button issues of the day, as well as perennial questions about political affiliation and trust in institutions.

Of course, generational surveys are always tricky to interpret, considering the wide variety of opinions an age group covers. It’s a fool’s errand to claim that 31.5 million Millennials all lean one way or another politically. Indeed, the survey reveals that young people are split on most issues at hand.

However, one trend that the surveys have shown over the past few years is a declining faith in institutions. From USA Today:

Millennials’ trust in large institutions like the courts, the police and the media, appears to have passed through its nadir, with faint signs of optimism emerging. Among the six institutions included in the survey, the military ranked highest, at 53%.

Whether Democrat or Republican, most millennials (83%) show no faith in Congress. The majority Republican legislature is failing to address the issues Millennials care most about.

“Millennials are on a completely different page than most politicians in Washington, D.C.,” Della Volpe says. “This is a more cynical generation when it comes to political institutions.”

In total, a majority of respondents expressed faith in only two of the 11 institutions mentioned in the survey (18 percent). By contrast, the Institute’s first survey conducted in spring 2000 found a majority of respondents expressed faith in six of the eight institutions mentioned (75 percent).

The lesson: Millennials are more cynical than other generations.

Reprinted with permission from Rare.